Hybridan Small Cap News – September 2026

Hybridan Monthly, 8 September 2026

Market Comment: View from the Broker’s Desk: Expect a tidal Wayve of private market secondaries

Ever since the London Stock Exchange first consulted on its Private Intermittent Securities and Capital Exchange System (PISCES), the initiative has attracted no shortage of scepticism.

Public market participants argued that the Exchange’s efforts would be better spent reforming UK equity markets so that more companies—large and small—choose to pursue an IPO. Private market participants questioned whether PISCES solved a genuine problem at all, pointing to companies such as Revolut, Monzo, GoCardless, Vinted, 9fin and Tide, all of which have completed, or are considering, sizeable secondary transactions without relying on the PISCES framework.

The LSE, however, has remained consistent in its rationale. Feedback from companies suggested that the leap from private ownership to a public listing had become too binary. There was little in the way of a stepping stone. PISCES was designed to bridge that gap by allowing companies to gain experience of market-based trading, price discovery and investor engagement without undertaking a full IPO.

Crucially, it also creates an opportunity for founders, employees and early investors to realise part of their holding before listing. Whether one agrees with the concept or not, the reality is that companies are remaining private for longer. Many are scaling to multi-million-pound annual recurring revenues within just a few years, often requiring significantly less capital than businesses did a decade ago. In fast-moving sectors such as AI and quantum computing, many of these businesses are ultimately acquired rather than reaching the public markets. By engaging companies earlier in their lifecycle, the LSE hopes to ensure that London remains a credible listing destination should those businesses eventually decide to go public.

July proved to be a landmark month for PISCES

The platform received a significant endorsement when Wayve, Britain’s autonomous driving technology champion, became the first major operating company to complete a transaction under the PISCES framework. It is entirely understandable that companies would be cautious about adopting a new regulatory framework, but Wayve provided the credibility the market had been waiting for.

The transaction was also meaningful in scale. Approximately US$85m of existing shares were sold by employees, reportedly valuing the business at around US$8.6bn, broadly in line with its February 2026 funding round.

The momentum did not stop there.

Shortly afterwards, digital savings and wealth platform Moneybox also announced a PISCES transaction, facilitating a £45m employee share sale at an £800m valuation, a substantial increase from the £550m valuation achieved during its October 2024 funding round. With more than £19bn of assets under management, Moneybox further demonstrated that PISCES is attracting established, high-quality growth businesses rather than simply early-stage venture-backed companies.

Nor can the recent activity be dismissed as isolated examples of private secondary transactions.

Evercore Private Capital Advisory estimates that global secondary transaction volumes reached between US$225bn and US$240bn during 2025, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 40-55%. UBS expects the market to exceed US$250bn in 2026, which would mark yet another record year.

Several structural trends are driving this growth. Companies are staying private for longer, extending the period that investors have to wait before they can achieve liquidity. At the same time, subdued IPO and M&A markets have reduced traditional exit opportunities, increasing demand for secondary transactions as institutional investors seek to return capital. Dedicated secondary funds continue to raise record amounts of capital, while private equity managers are increasingly transferring their strongest portfolio companies into continuation vehicles rather than selling them outright as funds reach the end of their investment lives.

Interest in private markets is also broadening beyond traditional venture capital and private equity investors. Research by Wealth Club found that 82% of UK wealth managers and financial advisers expect retail allocations to private markets to increase materially over the next five years. Today, around 4% of wealth managers’ report that more than half of their clients already have exposure to private markets—a figure expected to rise to 13% within the next three years.

Ultimately, however, the success of PISCES should not be measured solely by the volume or value of secondary transactions completed. The real test is whether companies using the platform ultimately choose London as their listing venue.

Historically, public and private markets have often competed rather than complemented one another, particularly when it comes to IPOs. Debates around primary fundraising versus secondary sell-downs and valuation expectations have frequently created tension between the two ecosystems. PISCES has the potential to become a genuine bridge, creating a more sustainable pipeline of companies progressing from private ownership to the public markets.

For smaller growth companies, however, secondary transactions remain largely inappropriate—and rightly so. At the earlier stages of a company’s development, investors are aligned around deploying fresh primary capital to accelerate growth. Secondary liquidity becomes more relevant only once businesses have successfully executed their growth strategy and institutional demand is sufficiently deep to absorb shareholder sell-downs, as demonstrated by companies such as Applied Nutrition plc (APN.L, £797.50m market cap.) and Raspberry Pi Holdings plc (RPI.L, £1.29bn market cap.).

Looking ahead, provided the current trajectory in secondary markets continues, we would expect more Wayve- and Moneybox-esque businesses to use PISCES as a venue for structured secondary liquidity events.

That said, the success of PISCES should not distract the LSE from the equally important challenge of making AIM and London’s public markets more attractive places for ambitious growth companies to list, scale, and remain.

There are already encouraging signs. Recent media reports suggest that US cybersecurity company AlgoSec is exploring a potential London IPO. The business provides network security management solutions to more than 2,300 enterprise customers worldwide—including AT&T, Chevron, Morgan Stanley and Renault—and market estimates suggest annual revenues of approximately US$105m. Should that transaction materialise, it would provide another welcome signal that London’s efforts to strengthen both its private and public market ecosystem are beginning to gain traction.

By Niall Pearson

Company Report: Growth Opportunity

ARC Seeing Ahead

Arcontech Group 79.50p £10.50m (ARC.L)

Price	Results	Top 3 Shareholders	Value Drivers
77p-82p	Year End 30 June 2025	Hargreave Hale Nominees Ltd 18.19% (including 1,770,421 shared held in nominee for Directors)	Tier One Clients
Spread 6.1%	Last reported 10 September 2025	Roy Nominees 11.57%	99% of Revenue Recurs
52 week High/Low 112p/73p	Interims to 31 December, Last reported 5 February 2026	Hargreaves Landsdown (Nominees) 11.26% (including 108,000 shares held in nominee for Directors)	Cash of £7.8m as at 31 December 2025

Source: Alpha Terminal

The provider of software products and services for the management of real-time financial market-data reported a new contract on 29 June in a Trading Update. Following a successful bidding process, Arcontech signed a 3-year contract, worth around £800k, with a major European bank for deployment of its CityVision software in the client’s trading infrastructure.

As a vendor agnostic market data platform, CityVision enables multiple data sources to be consumed by various applications written in different programming languages. It provides a cost-effective alternative to existing platforms and the flexibility to choose any source of data to avoid “vendor lock-in.” Arcontech’s products and bespoke solutions cover the collection, processing, distribution and presentation of time-sensitive financial markets data. There is a full suite of complementary and replacement components for legacy systems. Its server side and desktop components integrate seamlessly, so increasing flexibility as solutions can be off-the-shelf, customised, or completely new development in Cloud, On-premises or Hybrid. This provides a wide area of opportunity for complimentary and infill acquisitions.

Trading for the FY to 30 June was stated to be in line with market expectations, which had been reduced after the Interims to 31 December, but the recurring revenue represents 99% of total revenues and the gross margin is 100%. Profit before tax decreased by 23.8% to £394,622 as the previous period had contained an exceptionally high level of one-off revenues which were not expected to be repeated.

Clients include Global Tier 1 and Tier 2 financial market participants such as Danske Bank, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and the Bank of England. The Group has more than a 25-year history with ongoing investment in R&D and the strong reported pipeline gives confidence of a return to earnings growth.

On Alpha Terminal, forecasts for the FY to 30 June 2026 are for £2.7m of revenue, a PBT of £0.7m, an EPS of 5.1p and a dividend of 4.1p. For 2027, Alpha Terminal forecasts are for £3.2m of revenue, a £1m PBT, an EPS of 7.3p and a dividend of 4.2p. This, we calculated, gives a 2026 prospective P/E of 17x with a 4.9% yield and in 2027 a P/E of 11.4x and a 5% yield.

The balance sheet remains robust with net cash of £7.8m which was 8.4% or £0.6m higher than the prior period as of 31 December 2025 and represents 70% of the market capitalisation. This should be more than sufficient funds, to not only invest in the development team, which brings on new customers, but also to support an acquisition strategy.

Hybridan Comment: The net cash should help accelerate corporate development.

House News Report

Northern Bear 112.50p £15.47m (NTBR.L)*

Strong preliminary final results to FY 31 March 2026 were reported on 16 July, despite political changes causing delayed decisions. Private sector opportunities are more frequently being delayed or cancelled, but this adverse effect is being mitigated by the balance of work with the public sector. The growth strategy is to continue to invest in the existing businesses, prioritising opportunities with shorter payback periods. Highly selected acquisitive growth remains a target.

The forward order book remains robust, and our forecast shows a stable FY 31 March 2027 with unchanged revenue at £86.9m and we are being cautious on margins. The pipeline of opportunities is supported by continuing investments which we expect to strengthen the market position and provide a solid platform for earnings growth. The proposed special dividend of 5p is payable to shareholders on the register at 28 August and there is also an ordinary 2.5p dividend to be paid, which we forecast will be maintained.

Cash generation from operating activities of £6.88m remained strong and compares to £7.73m in the prior period. Net cash grew to £6.2m, compared to £2.5m in FY2025 which was after deducting a loan of £1.5m that was fully repaid during FY 2026 using free cash flow. The working capital requirement fluctuates; the lowest net cash position during FY2026 was £0.6m, the highest was £6.2m and the average was £3.3m net cash. We forecast FY March 2027 net cash of £3.6m which is sufficient cash for operations, leaving headroom for add-on acquisitions.

The roofing business accounts for 38.2% of revenue and Wensley Roofing is working towards Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) accreditation. This will facilitate renewable energy installations such as solar panels and battery storage. Investment will continue in decarbonisation solutions, and the relocation of Jennings Roofing should also permit further geographical expansion.

The Specialist Building Services division grew revenues to £48.8m from £41.2m in FY 2025 and is 56.7% of total revenue and its gross margins improved to 27.0% from 25.1% in the prior period. Isoler, the fire solutions business, has seen an increase in opportunities outside the Northeast region and post-year end has opened a small London office. The business offers a one stop shop solution and maintains a good mix of private and public sector clients.

Hybridan Comment: The challenging construction market is mitigated by Northern Bear’s diversified business and strong management. The P/E ratio for the UK Construction and Building sector ranges between 13.5x and 16.5x. Our earnings forecast for 2027 gives a prospective P/E of 5.9x which is an attractive valuation as it also supported a dividend and generated cash available to accelerate growth.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly June 2026, NTBR share price then 110.50p

* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP

News Update: Growth opportunities that have reported trading updates over the past month

Croma Security Solutions Group 71.50p £9.74m (CSSG.L)

The security solutions group updated on trading for the FY to 30 June 2026 on the 20 July. Revenue is likely to be up 15% to around £11.0m which is slightly ahead of market expectations. The EBITDA is also expected to be marginally ahead of expectations at around £1m although lower than previous periods £1.1m, reflecting the planned increase in investment. This performance reflects contributions from the two acquisitions completed in H2, together with growth driven by healthy demand from both retail and commercial customers, supported by increasing regulatory requirements and a continued focus on protecting people, property and assets.

The Group’s balance sheet remains robust, with no bank debt, and net cash (excluding lease liabilities) on 30 June 2026 of £4.9m against £4.4m in the prior period. This provides the financial flexibility for the continued execution of the acquisition strategy while investing in the ongoing organic growth. The target is to acquire 3 to 5 shops per year, then transform them into full-service security centres with an expanded product offering, improved operational efficiencies, and enhanced profitability. The Chairman is confident this will drive sustainable long-term growth. Croma, the CEO claims, is financially stronger than at any point in its history, with a debt-free balance sheet and growing cash resources. It seems set for further expansion of the acquisition strategy and anticipates there are plenty of businesses looking to benefit from being part of a larger organisation.

On 3 August, the Company announced the completion of the acquisition of Added Security Technology Limited, an established provider of intercom and door entry systems, locksmith services and hearing impaired living aids, based in Portsmouth. The total consideration for the acquisition is approximately £1.74m and includes cash balances of £0.80m and a freehold property, from which the business trades, valued at £0.53m. On 1 September, Croma announced the completion of the acquisition of A. Butler & Sons Ltd, an established commercial locksmith business based in Holborn, operating under the trading name of William Channon. The consideration for the acquisition, estimated at £1.0m, is based on the target NAV at Completion. An initial payment of £600,000 was paid on Completion.

Hybridan Comment: The EV/ EBITDA that we calculate of 4.4x seems to ignore the possibility of successfully building a national hub of security centres.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly March 2025, CSSG share price then 85.5p

KRM22 35.50p £21.35m (KRM.L))

The technology and software investment company with a focus on risk management in capital markets, updated on Interim Trading to 30 June 2026 on 29 July. The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has increased from £7.6m in the interims to 30 June 2025 to £7.9m, with the total revenue of £3.8m compared to £3.7m in the prior period and the EBITDA of £0.2m is down slightly from last year’s £0.3m (H1 2025). The cash balance is £4.7m compared to £5.2m (H1 2025) following the fund raise on 14 October 2025 when £9.2m was raised as 40p a share to be used to fund the expansion of the existing suite of applications beyond the Exchange Traded Directives space to support developing opportunities in Equities, Fixed Income, FX and Crypto.

Regulatory pressure is driving firms to refine procedures, and this established technology enables greater accuracy, efficiency, and compliance. The Company has made progress with the expansion of these new applications, but there have been delays in the conversion of the sales pipeline, due to increased market volatility with extended vendor onboarding and internal governance processes. The demand for the Company’s applications, however, is reported to be strong; the quality of the sales pipeline opportunities continues to build. The Board remains on target for FY 31 December 2026 forecast which on Alpha Terminal is a loss of £0.9m compared to a £2.1m loss for the prior period.

On 26 August, KRM22 announced the signing of a new customer contract for the Limits Manager application. The new contract, with an ARR of US$0.3m, covers a period of two years and represents a cross-sale with an existing major Futures Commission Merchant which is looking to expand its usage of the Limits Manager application internally. Following this contract win, the Group’s ARR has increased by £0.5m to £8.0m since 31 December 2025. The new contract win underpins the Board’s expectations for the outcome for the year, given the quality of the sales pipeline and the confidence in the Group’s ability to convert it.

Hybridan Comment: KRM’s software addresses a large attractive market opportunity and as the momentum in converting the existing pipeline builds, so should the share price.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly November 2025, KRM share price then 44.0p

The Mission Group 24.00p £19.55m (TMG.L)

The Trading Update on 23 July for H1 to 30 June 2026 showed that performance was in line with the Board’s expectations; with improved headline operating profit before adjustments expected to be up 10% at £2.4m compared to £2.2m in the prior set of interim results. H1 revenue is expected to decline to £32.5m against £34.1m in the prior period. The Group maintained its track record of strong client retention and won new clients across all business segments. These included Westminster Council, Puma, Amaala Yacht Club, PwC, the International Tennis Federation and Volleyball World. The interim net bank debt declined to £11.0m, compared to £13.7m for the prior period primarily a result of the settlement of outstanding acquisition obligations and the cash cost of the restructuring programme delivered in H1 2026. Debt is expected to reduce in H2 2026 as the benefits of the annualised cost savings come through.

Forecasts on Alpha Terminal for FY 31 December 2026 are turnover of £70m, a PBT of £6.9m, and an EPS of 5.51p. This would put the Group on a prospective P/E we calculate of 3.4x. The EBITDA is forecast to improve in FY 2026 by 33.1% to £11.3m from which we calculate an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.3x.

Hybridan Comment: The improving prospects of this cyclical business seem to be unrecognised in the current valuation.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly July 2026, TMG share price then 18.0p

Upcoming Event: after the summer holidays

Shearwater Group 58.50p £13.94m (SWG.L)

A strong H2 trading performance was reported in the FY to 30 June 2026 Trading Update issued on 27 July. The growth momentum is continuing to be driven by the services segment where there have been several contracts wins for its cyber security and risk management services. Customer demand for the Group’s services continues to grow as organisations seek safety in the increasing threat of cyber war. A major contract was renewed for five years on 1 July worth £25m with a global telecommunications provider for monitoring, forensic analysis and service assurance solution across the provider’s network infrastructure and key strategic clients. Net cash has improved to £5.6m and Directors will be seeking shareholder approval for a proposed reallocation of capital to give the flexibility to buy back shares and/or pay a dividend.

On 6 August,  Shearwater’s subsidiaries Brookcourt Solutions and Pentest Limited have both secured positions on G-Cloud 15, the UK Government’s enlarged procurement framework for cloud-based software, hosting and support services.

The Board anticipates that business is ahead of market expectations for FY to 30 June 2026 with expected revenue of c.£42m, representing an annualised YoY increase of c.33%, EBITDA of £2.5m, representing an annualised increase of 41%, a PBT of £1.2m and EPS of 4.9p. We calculate an EV/EBITDA of 3.0x and prospective P/E of 11x. The Group enters FY June 2027 with positive momentum, supported by continued demand for its cybersecurity services and a strong pipeline of opportunities.

Hybridan Comment: A higher valuation seems justified for a growing company in cyber security.

By Hybridan Team

** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on 7 September 2026

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