Hybridan Monthly, 1 July 2025

Market Comment:

For another fund manager special edition of Hybridan’s “view from the broker’s desk”, we are delighted to be joined by Andy Brough, Head of the Pan European Small and Mid-Cap team at Schroders.  Andy is responsible for managing the Schroder UK Mid 250 Fund since its launch in 1999 and the Schroder UK Smaller Companies Fund. He became sole head of the team in 2016, having co-led since 2002. He joined Schroders in 1987 and is based in London.

Hi Andy, thank you for you very much for joining us.

Over your tenure as a fund manager, has your investment criteria changed at all when reviewing potential opportunities?

When I joined Schroders in 1987 the head of the investment division said to me that equities are a great hedge against inflation. That stuck with me so we always, subject to valuation, try to buy companies where demand exceeds supply for the product. The thing we have refined is what we look for before we sell a share and that has been built up over time where we try and learn from our mistakes.

With the small cap fund management sector being plagued by redemptions over the past couple of years, it has created a situation for some where managers are forced up the market cap scale, prioritising a company’s daily trading volumes over their fundamentals, it would seem.  What’s your view on this and do you think fund managers have lost some of their discretion?

Liquidity has become a bit of a buzzword, but the key is to take advantage when there is and not be afraid of it. The Warren Buffett phrase “be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy is a good way to think about liquidity.

When you are out marketing to your own investors, what’s your message to them about the outlook for UK small caps?

Small caps look cheap, but you need to find companies that are truly special, for every Games Workshop which make it through to the FTSE100 there are many that are still the same price or lower than they were 20 years ago.

There is often some level of investor outcry when established UK businesses are being taken out at premiums, but still too early and undervalued; what’s the root cause here? Is it a fundamental shift in our market with a lack of fund managers ie. buyers or has it been a recurring theme in past economic cycles?

Once you are quoted on the stock market then anyone can buy your shares, attracting further capital for companies has been hard and has led to smaller companies looking to sell to a bigger company so they can continue to grow. There is no doubt that smaller companies go too cheap and that is why you are also seeing a lot more bids.

When you look at the star performers in your portfolio over the years, are there any recurring themes such as a particular management skillset or strategy that led to their success?

The companies with either a unique product or exceptional management are those that tend to deliver the best returns. Unfortunately, both are in short supply.

Do you think PLC and private equity investors can ever coexist harmoniously?  Whether it be IPO investors providing a partial (not full) exit to PE investors or vice versa with PE providing a profitable exit for IPO investors.  To steal your phrase, how can “everyone feel like they have left the party with a balloon?”

Trust between fund managers and private equity has completely broken down, so much so that I think it will be very hard for private equity to float anything at the price they expect. At the end of the day the stock market is there to provide capital to companies that want to grow and reward investors with a rising stream of dividends from a rising stream of earnings. It is not there to bail out private equity.

And finally, if you were Chancellor for the day, what would you do to get the excitement back into small cap investing? 

f I were chancellor for a day, I would abolish the FCA and allow the retail investors back into the new issue market as that would keep the banks floating these companies honest.

By Niall Pearson

Company Newsflow:

CPX Power Punch

TGP Clear Pipeline

Cap-XX Limited 0.2025p £11.70m (CPX.L)

Price

Results

Top 3 Shareholders

Value

0.21-0.23p

Year End June

Dr. Graham Cooley 9.92%

Distribution Deals

Spread: 9.09%

Finals reported 29th November 2024

Schurter AG 4.96%

New Products

52 week High/Low: 0.407/0.1055p

Interims to December, reported February 17th 2025

Patrick Elliott 0.81%

Possibly Funded to Break Even

Source: Alpha Terminal, https://www.cap-xx.com/

CapXX’s high-power density and high energy storage capacity superconductors are used in portable and small-scale electronic devices, as well as in larger applications such as automotive and renewable energy. This is a $1bn market and forecast to grow at 18% per annum between 2023 and 2030. The recent Trading Update reported progress on restructuring over the last five months to May 2o25. CapXX’s cash remained robust as at 31 May at AUD$4.2m compared to AUD$5m as at 31 January 2025 as a result of cost-saving initiatives, an ongoing emphasis on efficient operational performance, and a slowing rate of cash use.

A significant milestone has been passed as the first batch of its co-branded supercapacitor products have been shipped to Schurter ‘s warehouse. This strategic partnership extends the Company’s product reach into global industrial and electronics markets. Several other distribution agreements have been signed with additional agreements in negotiation. A distribution  agreement was recently announced with a UK listed industrial and electronic components suppler RS Group plc (RSI.L) whose turnover is around £2.9bn. The Agreement extends the global availability of CAP-XX’s prismatic, cylindrical, and hybrid supercapacitors. The increasing distribution will strengthen CAP-XX’s global ability to deliver advanced energy storage solutions across various industries, including automotive, IoT, industrial automation, and consumer electronics.

Investment in R&D continues with an additional two international patents building upon the technologies developed around the new polymer binder. The new product range includes break-through technology allowing supercapacitors to be stable at high temperatures so better able to penetrate many high-volume applications. We believe that the value adding inflection point of cash flow breakeven at the historic run-rate may be by H1 2026 and in Hybridan’s opinion will be funded by existing cash and helped by the R&D Tax credit likely to be received from the Australian Government.

Hybridan Comment: The growing distribution channels and new products should drive significant sales growth and the Company’s prime objective from their communication in recent announcements is to achieve cashflow break-even.

Tekmar Group 5.625p £7.8m (TGP.L)

Price

Results

Top 3 Shareholders

Value

5.25- 6p

Year End September

SCF Partners 31.44%

Reorganisation complete

Spread: 13.3%

Finals reported 4th

March 2025

Schroders PLC 12%

Increasing Scale 

52 week High/Low: 9.75p /4.25p

Interim results Reported 26th June

JO Hambro Capital Management 9.14%

New Order anticipated in H2

Source: Alpha Terminal, www.tekmargroup.com

The provider of technology and services for the global offshore energy markets reported H1 2025 on the 26 June. As previously signalled, revenue decreased to £12.3m compared to £16.2m, with a reduction in gross margins to 29% from 33%, running to a negative EBITDA of £(0.7)m compared to a positive £1.8m. The Interims reflect the under-utilisation of its manufacturing capacity as the order intake during the period was £10m compared to £21m in H1 2024.

Interim net debt of £1.8m is lower than last year’s £3.6m following the proceeds from a divestment in 2024. A trade loan facility has been renewed for £4m and the Group has taken out a 3-year £2m Growth Guarantee Scheme term loan, supported by the British Business Bank. SCF Partners, its major shareholder, has made an £18m CLN facility available to drive organic and acquisitive growth. The visible pipeline is reported to be strong with in excess of £50m of projects scheduled for award in the second half of this calendar year.

Subsea Protection Systems are critical in safeguarding cables and SURF products (umbilicals, risers and flowlines that go above the water) from external forces in both hostile dynamic and static environments. In over 35 years, Tekmar has supplied 9,000 protection systems protecting billions of GBP worth of subsea assets. In partnership with EPIC (Engineering, Procurement, Installation, and Commissioning) contractors’, initial Middle East orders worth £1.5m have been won to provide specialised offshore grouting services (waterproofing) which are expected to be completed in FY September 2025. In May 2025, the Company was awarded a contract to provide grouting services for the Inch Cape Offshore Wind Farm, which is off the Scottish coast. A dispute was settled in March with no admission of liability or defect with the Company’s product. The balance of the settlement agreement is fully covered by the insurance monies, with nil cash impact.

A refreshed three-year strategy is in-place under new CEO, Richard Turner, who was appointed in September 2024. The plan focuses on achieving greater scale through accelerated profitable organic growth and complementary M&A. A positive EBITDA of £1.8m is forecast to increase to £3.1m, for FY September 2026. In our opinion, we suggest that based on these market expectations, this would put the Company on an EBITDA/EV of 5.3x, dropping to lower than 3.1x according to Hybridan calculations by Financial Year September 2026.

Hybridan Comment: The share price should recover as inroads are made into converting the £50m pipeline.

House Report: News from a house stock

Petards Group  8.25p £5.0m (PEG.L)*

Petards is a specialist solutions provider for security, surveillance, and ruggedised electronic applications in the defence, rail transport, communications, and traffic technology sectors. The recently reported finals to December 2024 contained a 6.5-month contribution from the £2.85m Affini acquisition which expanded the product range and deepened the client base. This is Petards’ third acquisition since 2016 (QRO and RTS) and was paid for from cash held, utilisation of the overdraft, and the vendors received £326k of shares. Non-dilutive progress is being made with this acquisition in diversifying the core rail division with complementary businesses.

Revenues for the full year to December 2024 (FYDec24) improved 27.5% to £12.02m,to give a 21% increase in adjusted EBITDA to £0.41m. After the acquisition and other related costs, the operating cashflow was positive supporting the increase in debt to £1.54m compared to net funds of £1.2m. There is an ‘evergreen’ £2.5m overdraft facility in place while cash flows back into working capital from the substantial recurring income from the ‘blue chip’ OME client base. The Loss Before Tax, including exceptional costs of £0.49m and ongoing R&D, is £1.4m compared to a £1.2m loss. There is an embedded operational challenge in supplying large rail and defence clients, which is being mitigated by the business development strategy. This strategy could be accelerated if relative valuations were considered to be non-dilutive by management.

Hybridan Comment: Progress is made building a range of sustainable recurring revenue streams, while there is the possibility of ‘lumpy’ rail and defence contracts. The Interims to June 2025 are likely to show a decent recovery from H124 and there is strong revenue cover on market expectations.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly March 2025, Petards share price then unchanged at 8.25p

Updates/Events:

Oxford Metrics 50.2p £61.5m (OMG.L)

The smart sensing and software Company, servicing life sciences, entertainment, engineering and smart manufacturing markets, reported interim results to March 2025 on 18th June. Revenue of £20.1m decreased 14% compared to last year which had included the delivery of a particularly large order. The Loss before Tax is £0.4m compared to a £3m profit with restructuring completed and a new product Vicon Makerless went live on 25 March. The net cash position was £39.9m compared to H1 FY24 of £54.8m, which is sufficient resources for further targeted M&A and capital returns. As the Board approved a further £4m extension of the share buyback programme to take it up to £10m.

There is a note of caution as the US operation is experiencing several pipeline opportunities being cancelled or delayed beyond the current financial year. Trading is H2 weighted and has started in line with expectations. The fundamental business drivers of capturing data from the physical world to the digital world and then analysing it, has attracted customers such as DreamWorks, Dyson, and Sony and others in 70+ countries. Forecasts for March 2026 of PBT of £3.73m for an EPS of 2.6p would give a prospective P/E of 19x, however given the high cash balances the EBITDA/EV of 7x seems a fairer measure.

Hybridan Comment: The recovery prospects are likely to be accelerated by further acquisitions giving an addition reason for investors’ interest.

Rosslyn Data Technologies 3.70p £2.74m (RDT.L)

The cloud-based ‘supply chain’ intelligence platform, updated on trading for FY April 2025 on the 19th June. The Company expects to report revenue growth 14% to £3.3m and a reduced EBITDA loss to £1.7m from the £2.5m loss in FY24. The cash and equivalents increased to £1.7m in April 2025 compared to £0.6m and the cash burn rate significantly reduced to £142k per month from £218k per month. A three-year contract worth £200k has been signed with a British train operating company. The Company is in advanced contract negotiations with several potential new and existing customers. There is further planned development work for the Major New Client won last year. The monthly cash burn rate is expected to be further reduced and become cash generative monthly by the end of FY April 2026.

In March 2025, Dr. John Chessher was appointed as a NED following 30 years’ investment industry experience previously being the CEO of Cenkos Securities Asia and as Head of Asia Pacific Research at Schroder Investment Management.

Hybridan Comment: There a  cash runway to close sizeable new orders and the prospects seem set to improve.

Safestay 24.5p £15.91m (SSTY.L)

The owner and operator of an international brand of contemporary hostels reports Full Year results to December 2024. Revenue increased 2% to £23m, with a 4% decline in EBITDA to £6.5m and reduced Loss After Tax to £0.9m from  a £1.4m loss. The NAV per share is 47p and lower than last year’s 50p. The FY cash was £1.4m compared to £2.0m reflecting the freehold purchases of hostels in Brighton and Cordoba made during the Year and ongoing capital expenditure across the portfolio. Active marketing increased  bed nights by10% and occupancy increased by 3.8% to 75.2%. There was a 10% decrease in average bed prices reflecting the industry-wide challenging pricing environment. Consumer confidence has remained under pressure in H1 25, although forward bookings are running at a satisfactory level driven by the relevance of the low-cost consumer proposition. The Company reported it is considering disposing of the freehold of certain UK assets,  although the medium-term ambition is to double the number of Safestay hostels.

Hybridan Comment: As the portfolio is built, the attraction of Safestay to a ‘larger’ leisure company becomes more compelling.

Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly March 2025, Safestay share price then 20.5p

In the news in July

Altitude Group 25p £18.29m (ALT.L)

The end-to-end solutions provider of branded merchandise to the promotions industry is expected to report it Finals to 31 March 2025 on 29 July. The uncertainty regarding trade tariffs impacts the US economy, but as business sentiment improves, historic trends suggest that demand for promotional products tends to rebound rapidly. The trading update on 31 March set expectations for significant growth with adjusted profit before tax of £1.3m compared to £0.7m on $24m turnover in the period to 31 March 2024 which gives a prospective P/E of 15x. The net debt is £0.6m and the Company expects that the existing bank facility is sufficient for growth.

The less competitive US university promotions market is worth $9bn and in March, the Group reported seven new University contracts with expected average revenues of $6.5m across the full academic year. The most recent of these awarded contracts has an annualised value of $4.0m across multiple locations, over a 5-year contract. The Group has been investing in this business division to support its new programmes.

Hybridan Comment: The recovery seems robust, and the finals could report momentum.

* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP

** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on 30 June 2025

By Jon Levinson

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