Hybridan Monthly, 2 June 2025
Market Comment:
For a special June edition of Hybridan’s “view from the broker’s desk”, we are delighted to be joined by Ken Wotton, Managing Director at Gresham House Asset Management.
Ken leads the investment team managing public equity investments and is lead manager for LF Gresham House UK Micro Cap Fund, LF Gresham House UK Multi Cap Income Fund, Strategic Equity Capital plc and manages AIM listed portfolios on behalf of the Baronsmead VCTs. Ken graduated from Brasenose College, Oxford, before qualifying as a Chartered Accountant with KPMG. He was an equity research analyst with Commerzbank and then Evolution Securities prior to spending the past 18 years as a Fund Manager at Livingbridge and now Gresham House specialising in UK smaller companies.
Hi Ken, thank you for you very much for joining us.
- The quoted investment team at Gresham House are known for having an investment philosophy centred around taking a private equity approach to public equity markets. Please would you elaborate on this?
When we describe our investment strategy as taking a private equity approach to public markets what we mean is that we take a long-term view of a company’s prospects, we focus on the fundamentals of that business and what will make it more valuable over time, we fixate on understanding how downside risks can be mitigated and we proactively engage with management, the Board and other key stakeholders to support and drive value creation where we can see an opportunity to do so in a collaborative way.
- Over the past 18 months, we have witnessed an acceleration in companies delisting from the market. Many of these companies have experienced years of stagnant or declining revenue growth and subsequent share price decline. Is the market going through a process of “natural selection” where investors have become more clinical in deploying growth capital or do you feel our small cap ecosystem should have done more to support these companies?
The acceleration in delistings from the London market can be explained by two things (1) discounted valuations relative to private markets have created a material arbitrage opportunity for private equity and strategic trade buyers to acquire good quality businesses at attractive prices even after paying a premium; and (2) your idea of “natural selection” where smaller underperforming companies are no longer attracting marginal buyers of their shares and have valuations that do not support capital raising rendering the ongoing costs of being listed an unnecessary burden. We believe both are a natural consequence of the market cycle and will recover in due course once capital flows back into the market. The former is not ideal long term and has been exacerbated by outflows from UK small cap funds creating forced sellers for which a takeover may be welcome short term relief. The latter is usually a good thing because there are always companies that have not delivered and where the market is no longer appropriate for them.
- It is an incredibly tough funding environment right now for SMEs. From your portfolio companies, what are the best management teams doing to ride out the current storm in terms of capital preservation? How are they balancing this versus maintaining growth?
In my experience, the best management teams do not waste a good crisis. Teams that have innovative business models, are agile and adapt to a changing market landscape, can take market share when competitors are struggling. Taking measured risk is critical to successful entrepreneurial growth businesses and investing appropriately to capture the opportunity is what sets the best businesses apart. There are many businesses that built themselves up from the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and with the benefit of hindsight proved to be excellent investments for those with a long-term view and high conviction in the opportunity at a time when negative sentiment was depressing risk appetite across the market.
- 2024 was a busy year for private equity with many firms taking advantage of the low valuations of listed companies, which often created uproar from UK investors. There is an argument however, that if public market investors were more active in these companies, there wouldn’t be a valuation gap that private equity wanted to take advantage of. What’s your view on this?
Unfortunately the relentless outflows from UK equity funds has created a prolonged environment of marginal sellers of UK stocks. In small caps, the impact of this has been an amplified negative impact on share prices and ratings of businesses, often not adequately discriminating between higher and lower quality companies. Inevitably this has resulted in more takeover interest from private equity where there is substantial “dry power” waiting to be deployed and in many cases there are funds that are behind schedule in terms of deployment rates due to recent periods of low deal activity due to big external shocks such as Covid and Ukraine War.
The key to changing this dynamic is stimulating incremental positive flows into the UK market. In our view we are relatively close to an inflexion point due to a combination of low valuations, a relatively stable political and economic backdrop in the UK versus the US or Continental Europe, the end of US exceptionalism catalysed by Trump’s Tariffs and meaningful flows of capital away from US equities for the first time in many years. If the UK can share in the redeployment of international capital flows, it could be very material for valuations. History tells us that when UK Smaller Companies turn they can do so rapidly and very materially. We see significant upside from here given where valuations sit today.
- Keeping on the theme of valuations, here at Hybridan we tracked all the placing discounts in fundraises across 2024. Average discounts for placings in companies (we remove premia in unusual placings where fundraises are not typical investor or market led placings) under £70m market cap were 19.5% and 21.9% for companies under £35m market cap. Some have argued that these discounts are in stark contrast to the rhetoric that listed companies were already sitting at depressed valuations. What’s your view on this?
I think these discounts are a function of supply and demand at this point in the market cycle. My earlier comments about outflows from UK equity funds are very relevant. Negative flows depress the appetite of a fund manager to back a new idea rather than retrenching to manage existing more familiar holdings. It also reduces the quantum they can invest if they do see an opportunity. Many investors have also moved up the market cap spectrum seeking lower risk and greater liquidity again reducing demand for new issues by small and micro-cap businesses. When flows turn and capital returns to this part of the market if demand exceeds supply, then discounts on new issues are likely to reduce significantly.
- And finally, if you were Chancellor for the day, what would you do to get the excitement back into small cap investing?
Between pensions and ISAs the UK taxpayer provides around £75bn of tax relief per year to savers. Encouraging or even mandating that some of this should be directed into investing in productive UK domestic assets including smaller growth companies would be transformational. A reversal of negative fund flows into UK equities and UK small caps in particular is vital to get the excitement back, but more importantly to support economic growth for the UK. This would be one way of directing existing capital to support UK assets and given where valuations currently sit, the returns potential should provide some excitement too!
By Niall Pearson
Company Newsflow:
KRM Risk Premium
IXI Partner for Growth
KRM22 36.50p £13.18m (KRM.L)
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
34-39p |
Year End December |
Trading Technologies International Inc. 24.7% |
High Value Niche |
Spread: 14% |
Finals reported 19 May |
Kestrel Investment Partners 17.1% |
Approaching break-even |
52 week High/Low: 36.5/23.5p |
Interim results to June expected before end September |
Canaccord Genuity 10.3% |
Entreprenial Team
|
Source: Alpha Terminal, https://krm22.com/investors/
KRM’s Global Risk Platform is focused on reducing the cost and complexity of risk management. The Platform provides applications to help address a firm’s trading and corporate risk challenges to manage its enterprise risk profile. Regulatory pressure is driving firms to refine procedures and technology enables greater accuracy, efficiency, and compliance. The global market for risk management software is worth approximately £6bn per annum.
At the start of 2024, serial tech entrepreneur Dan Carter and Gerry Jones were appointed as CEO and Non-Executive Chairman respectively. A cost savings programme was initiated, and the recently reported Full Year December 2024 showed a marked improvement in financial and operational performance. Revenues increased by 28.3% to £6.8m of which the Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) is £6.6m, which is a 22.2% increase compared to the previous period. The restructuring and rationalisation initiatives have reportedly reduced costs by £1.2m. The EBITDA profit is £1m compared to an EBITDA loss of £1.3m in the prior period, while the Losses before Tax decreased to £1.4m from Losses before Tax in the prior period of £4.9m. The gross cash at the Year End was £1m, compared to £0.9m at the end of December 2023.
During the period, 12 new ARR contracts were signed, which included 6 new customers, and there are now 44 institutional customers. The first sales have been received after the launch of a risk management application and the combination with Limits Manager streamlines a client’s risk operations and enhances its audit capabilities. Market Surveillance software has been developed with an Application Programming Interface (API), enabling web-based accessibility and added AI functionality focussed on monitoring, and this will be launched in 2025. A strong start to 2025 is reported with the ARR increasing further to £7.4m. KRM’s risk management technology and services are even more essential to clients in volatile times, and this momentum is creating significant opportunities for growth.
Hybridan Comment: The approaching uplift to earnings may accelerate development and the market capitalisation seems moderate for KRM’s specialist services.
IXICO 11p £10.2m (IXI.L)
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
10.5-11.5p |
Year End September |
Octopus Investments 18.2% |
US Expansion |
Spread: 9.52% |
Finals Expected by end of March |
Gresham House Asset Management 17.7% |
US CEO Appointed |
52 week High/Low: 13.3p /5.125p |
Interim results to March Reported 20th May |
Business Growth Fund 13.9% |
March 2025 Net Cash £5m |
Source: Alpha Terminal, https://ixico.com/investors/shareholder-information/shareholder-info/
Ixico is a neuroscience imaging and biomarker analytics Company, using its AI-driven platform to help advance drug development in neurological disorders. There are more than 600 CNS (Central Nervous System) diseases that can impact nervous systems; the largest are Huntington’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s, which alone was a market worth $3.7bn in 2023. IXI’s clients are large pharma and biotech able to remotely access the platform for clinical trial support and insights helping to reduce R&D risk and uncertainty while enhancing disease understanding and drug development efficiencies.
The Interims to end March 2025 were reported on the 20th May showing revenues increasing 26% to £3.2m. The gross margin improved to 49.6% from 40.2%, reflecting the onset of the operational leverage effect. The EBITDA loss reduced to £0.7m from a £1.3m loss and the order book was up from £12.7m to £13.1m. The technology and product roadmap is progressing in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease where there are increasing commercial opportunities. There is also a diversification of projects across therapeutic areas, clinical phases, geographies, and customer types. The net cash is a healthy £5.0m having raised £3.7m in October 2024 at 9.5p.
The next generation TrialTracker AI-driven imaging platform was launched after significant investment over the past few years and is expected to help the development of adjacent markets. A new CEO, Bram Goorden, was appointed in August 2024 having been at a similar business with the NASDAQ listed tech company, SOPHIA Genetics INC (SOPH $3.00 $200.5m). He has strong CNS experience, and has established US networks. The team is confident of delivering a sustainable and accelerated performance, both organically and through value-accretive partnerships and is in a strong position.
Hybridan Comment: The products and services are at a key stage of expansion for accelerated growth and the value should build.
House Report: News from a house stock
Sareum Holdings 14.25p £19.15m (SAR.L)*
The toxicology studies program for its lead TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor, SDC-1801, are the next key regulatory milestone on the pathway to a Phase 2 development programme. The studies are commencing and designed to support longer-term dosing of SDC-1801 and will investigate the general toxicology and potential of SDC-1801 to interact with other drugs. The studies are expected to complete in Q4 2025. The initial clinical focus is on psoriasis (chronic inflammatory skin disease) and these toxicology studies are an important step in advancing Sareum’s autoimmune drug candidate pipeline.
The Interims to December 2024 reported (on 25 March) cash of £4.1m, excluding the £1.1m raised in March 2025 at 12.5p. The loss before tax reduced to £1.33m, compared to a loss of £2.5m in the prior interim period (H1 Dec 2023) which included Phase 1a clinical trial costs.
Hybridan estimates that the Company is likely to have cash of £2.5m at the end of June 2025, which should give a 12-month cash runway to progress the pipeline and clinical data.
Hybridan Comment: SDC 1801’s development journey seems to be accelerating towards commercialisation by out licencing or partnering.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly November 2024, Sareum share price then at 26p
Updates/Events:
Hardide 7.75p £6.11m (HDD.L)
Hardide develops, manufactures, and applies advanced technology carbide /tungsten metal matrix coatings to a wide range of engineering components. The Interims to end March 2025 reported on the 20th May, and showed a 32% increase in revenue to £2.8m and a significantly higher gross profit margin at 54% from 41%, to record an EBITDA jump to £0.4m, compared to a loss £0.5m. There was a positive cash inflow with net cash of £1m, up from £0.7m. New management is building revenue and there is available production capacity in both the US and UK.
New services are being offered such as low phosphorus electroless nickel plating, passivation, electropolishing, as well as laboratory services, including corrosion salt spray testing and material testing and analysis. The Full Year to September 2025 will benefit from the significant new aerospace contract announced in December 2024, together with numerous other engineering development projects from new and existing customers.
Hybridan Comment: The commercialisation of the unique surface treatment technology is set to benefit from the investment made in the operational platform where there is available capacity for significant leveraged profitable growth.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly February 2025, Hardide share price then 6.75p
Nexus Infrastructure 160p £14.45m (NEXS.L)
The provider of essential infrastructure solutions reported interim results to March 2025 on the 15th May. The Company’s revenue increased 18.5% to £30.6m, in line with management expectations along with a reduced Operating Loss at £1.1m from a £1.3m loss (before exceptionals) in the prior interim period. Cash is slightly higher at £9.6m from the prior interim period of £9.3m and the interim dividend of 1p is maintained.
The integration of the Coleman acquisition, bought in October 2024 for an initial £3.1m, is starting to produce operational efficiencies as well diversifying the Company into new potentially high growth sectors. Coleman’s water sector division is winning projects which are due to start in Financial Year 2026 and is engaged in the CP7 rail sector delivery plan, which runs until March 2029. These initiatives enhance Nexus’ long-term revenue visibility. The several new contracts awarded to Tamdown in the house building sector builds the order book to £80.8m, which is up from £72m in in the prior interim period.
Hybridan Comment: Despite the economic uncertainties, the Company is well placed for a recovery in housebuilding, while benefiting from the timely diversification into infrastructure projects.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly February 2025, Nexus share price then
121p
Calnex Solutions 55p £48.34m (CLX.L)
The provider of test and measurement solutions for the global telecommunications and cloud computing markets reported its finals results for the Financial Year March 2025 on 20th of May. The strong H2 performance was driven by a higher proportion of high-value sales and increasing demand across cloud computing, defence, and satellite markets.
The year’s revenue improved 13% to £18.38m, with an EBITDA surge to £1.15m from £80k, and a PBT of £0.72m from a loss of -£0.38m. The period end closing cash of £10.9m is 8% lower, but the Full Year dividend of 0.93p is maintained. Recently launched products are gaining traction such as the growing demand for 800Gb/s used in synchronisation testing. FY26 has started with increasing orders in key sectors such as telecoms, cloud computing, and defence. These sectors need to invest in infrastructure to advance towards 5G coverage and the emergence of 6G, gen AI, and other new technologies.
Hybridan Comment: Calnex’s focus on scaling in the cloud and defence markets leaves it positioned to deliver sustained growth.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly May 2025, Calnex share price then 51.3p
In the news in June
Diales Group 24.00p £12.55m (DIAL.L)
The global specialist dispute avoidance and resolution consultancy is to report Interims to end March on 10th June. The Group is on a transformational strategic journey following its steep losses of £2.9m for the Year End September 2022. A four-year strategy is successfully delivering efficiency gains and enhanced competitiveness. The Board expects to report H1 revenue and underlying Group profit before tax similar to last year’s, with revenues of £21.7m. Based on current trading, the Group expects to deliver a PBT of £1.3m for the Financial Year to September 25, compared to £0.9m in the prior year to September 2024. A PBT of £1.3m equates to a forward EPS of 1.5p, giving a prospective P/E of 15x. The Full Year dividend is likely to be maintained at 1.5p, which puts the Group on a 6.25% dividend yield.
Hybridan Comment: The Group’s strategic guidance on supply chain challenges and cost escalation claims could benefit from the turmoil caused by the impact of North American tariff issues. There could also be a surge of enquires when the current destructive European and Middle Eastern conflicts are resolved.
* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on 02 June 2025
By Jon Levinson
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