Hybridan Monthly, 3 March 2026
Market Comment: View from the Broker’s Desk
IPOs, PISCES and valuations
2026 started with a certain amount of pent-up optimism for IPOs off the back of a surge in sentiment towards the back end of 2025. According to PwC’s UK IPO Watch, £1.9bn was raised from 11 IPOs across 2025, marking its strongest year since 2021.
The maiden IPO of 2026 kicked us off on 25th February with the Israeli global fintech Company, iFOREX (IFRX.L) which operates a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset CFDs. The Company reports 60K+daily transactions and $460bn + of annual trading volume (2024). The IPO raised £8.75m at 195p equating to a market capitalisation of approximately £43.3m at the commencement of dealings. The shares have held up well and at the time of writing are currently offered at 210p. For the year ended 31 December 2024, it reported trading income of USD 50.1m, adjusted EBITDA of USD 9.7m, and adjusted profit before tax of USD 7.6m.
Another “first” for London so far this year was the maiden deal launched on the LSE’s Private Securities Market, PISCES. The Private Stock Exchange market was created to allow private companies to trade their secondary shares (no new shares can be issued) to professional investors. This allows shareholders of private companies to sell their shares and have liquidity ahead of a potential IPO. The first transaction under the FCA’s PISCES framework will be through a TPEIC (pronounced “T-Pick”). This is an exchange-enabled independent investment structure that facilitates secondary liquidity within a regulated market infrastructure to maturing private companies. The structure will hold shares in Oxford Science Enterprises (OSE) as its sole underlying asset. OSE is an independent investment Company established to commercialise research from the University of Oxford, with a portfolio of over 100 companies spanning deep tech, AI, quantum computing and other frontier technologies including life sciences, and health tech. OSE is valued at £1.3bn. Having liquid access to exciting and fast-growing private companies has been a long-standing attraction for UK investors. OSE is perhaps best known for investing in quantum computing company Oxford Ionics which it recently exited to a US rival when it was sold for over £1bn.
The challenges investors face in reviewing private investment companies is largely around how the NAV is calculated (demonstrable corporate actions like funding round valuations is always preferred over sector multiples). Of equal importance is how viable the path to value realisation is, for instance, can the exit value sustain the rising valuation of the company that has inevitably been created by subsequent funding rounds.
We witnessed the meteoric rise in private company funding in 2025 with the likes of OpenAI raising $40bn, Anthropic raising $13bn and Scale AI raising $14.3bn. Such over-excitement and subsequent lofty investment rounds nearly always creates chatter of a sector bubble which we are currently seeing in the field of AI, especially in the US.
If there was a correction in the valuations of the sector, this would have a cascading effect for the rest of the tech sector, again particularly in the US, similar to what we saw post “Covid” where multiples migrated from being revenue based towards the longevity of the business model and ultimately gross profit.
The “fair reflection” challenge on the NAV of an investment company was most recently highlighted with the listed VC fund, Augmentum Fintech (AUGM.L), agreeing an £185.7m cash bid from Norwegian buyout group Verdane. Whilst the offer price was a 27% premium to Augmentum’s share price at the time, it still represented an opportunistic 30% discount to their last reported NAV.
More broadly, the outlook for 2026 remains consistently clear – the demand for backing high growth businesses from the quoted small cap investor community has never been stronger.
By Niall Pearson
Company Reports: We identify and report on growth opportunities
CKT Build once sell often
EARN Saving Costs (and the Planet)
Checkit 16.50p £17.8m (CKT.L)
|
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
|
16p-17p |
Year End January |
D&A (UK) Holdings Ltd. 21.76% |
Using AI appropriately |
|
Spread 6.25% |
Reported 24 April |
Keith Daley (Non-Exec Chairman) 20.18% |
Break even |
|
52 week High/Low 21p/11.25p |
Interims to July, reported 26 August |
Herald Investment Management Ltd 8.17% |
SaaS land & expand growth |
Source: Alpha Terminal
Checkit has developed an automated digital workflow platform using IoT sensors and data analytics to optimise the workflow of desk-less (blue collar) operations. The intelligent SaaS platform produces operational predictability, compliance, and safety for large facilities and multi-site locations which enables more efficient people, fixed assets and buildings. The market is in healthcare, biopharma, retail, facilities management, and franchised operations across the UK, continental Europe, Australasia and the US. Customers include bp, Dishoom, John Lewis and the NHS.
The trading update on 18 February for the FY to January 2026 reported that the adjusted EBITDA is ahead of market expectations at around break-even, with 71% gross margins, from an Interim loss of £0.5m. The cost reduction program, completed in June 2025, delivered £4.0m of annualised cost savings for a materially lower cost base. The YE net cash improved to £3.0m from £2.7m on 31 July 2025, reflecting a cash-generative H2. Recurring revenue increased to 96% of total revenue of £13.7m and the typical contract length is three years.
Checkit’s strategy remains centred on augmented workflow management through a subscription-based platform that enables data-driven decision making across frontline operations. Contracts were renewed with two large US customers under new three-year agreements validating the mission-critical ‘sticky’ nature of the platform. The growth model is driven by the principle of land customers and then expand the services, supported by a strong emphasis on product innovation, customer retention, and market development.
The use of AI tools particularly in product development enables the production of new features significantly more quickly and cost effectively. Checkit’s position as a generator, collator and analysis enabler of large operational datasets puts it in a strong position to develop compelling AI-related value propositions. The Group will continue to increase investment emphasis on its core platform. US renewals, along with an improved quality of sales pipeline and operational efficiency, suggests growth acceleration.
Hybridan Comment: After years of losses (cumulatively £35.7m since 2021), break-even for a SaaS company is a significant milestone. Its prospects for leveraged growth do not seem reflected in the valuation.
Earnz 5.40p £7.23m (EARN.L)
|
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
|
5p-5.8p |
Year End December |
Gresham House 26.46% |
Government Funding |
|
Spread 16% |
Reported 27 June |
Pentwater Capital 13.78% |
Seeking Scale |
|
52 week High/Low 6p/3.15p |
Interims to June, reported 11 September |
Bob Holt (Chairman) 9.26% |
Track Record |
Source: Alpha Terminal
This energy service Company’s objective is to capitalise on the drive for global decarbonisation, EARNZ stands for Advisory Regeneration Net Zero. These green objectives are boosted by the recent Government announcement of funding the Warmer Homes Plan (WHP) by making £15bn available to the Social Housing Sector. The Government plan is to upgrade housing stock to help one million households out of fuel poverty by 2030. The scale of the plan is the largest ever public investment to upgrade British homes to make them warmer and cut bills reducing fuel poverty. The WHP will cover the cost of solar panel installation, batteries, heat pumps and fund home upgrades for low-income and fuel poor households.
Two new contracts were reported on 25 February. The contracts are part of the strategic aim of building long term partnerships with new and established Tier 1 clients in the public and private sectors, responsible for residential and non-residential property portfolios. The first is on behalf of Sanctuary Housing, an initial two-year contract worth £2.6m per annum providing retrofit insulation, ventilation upgrades, and renewable energy solutions to homes. The second starts in April 2026 and is focused on the delivery of installation of energy efficiency improvements to over 175 properties, running until the end of March 2028, generating revenue of c.£2.1m.
EARNZ’s Chairman Bob Holt took Mears Group from £12m to £1bn of revenue. The plan it would appear here is a ‘Buy & Build’ growth strategy to acquire a portfolio of innovative clean energy services businesses to capitalise on the drive towards carbon neutral buildings. There have been several waves of ECO grants and funding committed to decarbonise such as the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund and the Government has set an aim for all Government property to be 100% decarbonised by 2050.
The Company aims to be a leading UK energy services provider and comprises of five energy services companies thus far, that have been acquired since March 2024. The dual focus is on both the public and private sectors delivering green energy services partnerships. This includes providing tailored energy solutions for businesses, social housing and private homes. The core of the strategy is building long term partnerships with new and established clients in the public and private sectors, responsible for residential and non-residential property portfolios.
On 11 September 2025, £1m of working capital was raised at 7.2p which was at a 44% premium and the new shares represented 10% of the Company’s enlarged share capital. The funding was supported by the Chairman’s family subscribing for £70k and Elizabeth Lake, the CFO with £30k. The capital is to pursue the significant opportunities identified in the Midlands and in Yorkshire.
Hybridan Comment: Helping to make homes more energy efficient, reduce costs and become warmer seems a viable business opportunity, and further contract wins and acquisitions can be anticipated.
House Report: House News
Petards Group 11.25p £6.83m (PEG.L)*
The Full Year December 2025 Trading update on 5 February reported continued improvement with revenue expected to advance 24% to circa £14.9m, stable gross margins, and an adjusted EBITDA of £1m.
The Full Year December 2025 Trading update on 5 February reported that the order intake for the year for Petards Rail and in particular Petards Defence were at levels not seen for several years. Contract awards from the MoD, Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land Limited (RBSL) and BAE Systems in the last two months of the year totalled £3.5m. The RBSL contract is for the provision of initial engineering design and obsolescence management services in support of RBSL’s Challenger 3 Upgrade Programme under which RBSL will deliver to deliver 148 Challenger 3 Main Battle Tanks to the British Army. Follow on orders can be expected. The Group’s year end order book closed at £9.2m compared to £7.1m at the end of 2024, with around 85% (£7.5m) scheduled for delivery in 2026. Petards generated operating cash flow cash of £1.4m from activities compared to £0.2m in the prior period, which after investing and financing net debt was reduced to £1.3m from £1.5m.
The complementary Affini acquisition, made on 14 June 2024, is an integrator of radio and wireless technologies. The interims reported trading ahead of expectations on 18 September 2025 and that Affini will make a profitable maiden full year’s contribution in 2025. An existing customer renewed a multi-year framework agreement on 5 August 2025 extended to end December 2029 and related revenues are expected to be more than £1m per annum. Affini services have strong recurring revenues streams.
Hybridan Comment: Recurring revenues are being generated from a wider range of sectors with the Affini acquisition so are less project based then rail and defence. The increasing order book and earnings visibility is building value.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly July 2025, Petard’s share price then 8.25p
* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
Updates/Events: News updates on Company Reports
Aurrigo International 87.50p £78.20m (AURR.L)
The international provider of transport technology solutions updated on trading for the FY December 2025 on 9 February. Revenue is expected to be around £8.0m compared to £8.9m which, although lower, is comparatively ahead of rebased expectations. The Adjusted EBITDA loss and loss before tax at £3m is expected to be in line with expectations. The Autonomous division Hub strategy is set for accelerated growth but contributed £2.5m revenue for the FY compared to £2.9m. H2 revenues in the more established Automotive division are c.30% higher than the weaker first half. The total revenue for the full year is expected to be lower at £5.4m against £5.9m. The Autonomous division largest autonomous aviation vehicle is in a strategic partnership with Swissport International. The launch of the Hub Strategy is to enable partnerships to increase operational capability in important aviation markets to accelerate customer adoption and broader market penetration, key to the division’s growth. The Company has a robust cash position of £11.5m, which is ahead of expectations.
Hybridan Comment: The low-cost expansion of the Hub Strategy should lead to scalable multiyear, multimillion dollar hub contacts.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly January 2026, Aurrigo’s share price then 82.5p
Nexus Infrastructure 117.50p £10.62m (NEXS.L)
The provider of essential infrastructure services and solutions reported finals to September 2025 on 26 February. Revenue as expected increased by 16% to £65.9m and gross margins improved to 15.6% from 13.5%, with a 21% reduction in central costs. The operating loss reduced to £1.1m from £1.9m before exceptionals. The cash is £10.9m compared £12.8m and a full year total annual dividend of 3p is to be paid. Tamdown, the civil engineering division, reported a £83.4m order book and has recently won further contracts worth £18m. The division is set to benefit from an anticipated upturn in the housebuilding sector. The Coleman acquisition in October 2024 delivers civil engineering and building projects in the water, rail, highways and rivers & marine sectors. An increased level of activity is anticipated from the water sector as the AMP8 investment programme gets underway, with the programme running through to 2030. The strong order book and improving market sentiment provide positive indications for the future. A break-even is forecast for the current year to September 2026, and there is also the chance of Coleman winning a large order.
Hybridan Comment: The finals were a reminder of the net cash and the opportunity for muti-year contracts in critical infrastructure projects.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly in February 2025, Nexus share price then 121p
Zinc Media Group 44.50p £11.21m (ZIN.L)
The television and content production group reported on Trading for the December 2025 year-end on 11 February. The Group expects revenue to increase 27% to £41m and an Adjusted EBITDA of £1.9m which is also 27% ahead of the previous year. The current year to December 2026 trading has started positively with £21m of projects secured and highly advanced in the pipeline. Additionally, the Group is progressing discussions over commissions worth a further £10m and are in early-stage discussions with eight large projects each with a value of over £1m which could be delivered later this year. With this strong pipeline and the benefit of cost savings made in the prior year, the Group remains on track to deliver the forecast from Alpha Terminal for increased revenue to £44.9m, a 39.4% increase in EBITDA to £2.92m and net cash estimated at £1.48m. The net cash at the Interims to 30 June was £4.2m compared to £4.1m and should provide the Group with sufficient working capital. Management is confident of reaching the medium-term target for £50m of revenue and £5m of EBITDA.
Hybridan Comment: We estimate that the 2026 EV/EBITDA is around 3.5x, which seems over cautious for a contract winning TV content provider.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly November 2024, Zinc share price was then 62p
In the news in March: Expected results previewed
Nexteq 77.00p £43.84m (NXQ.L)
The technology solutions provider to customers to industrial markets are expected to report finals to December 2025 later this month on 18 March. The 19 January Trading update reported robust trading across both divisions in line with expectations. Revenue is 4% ahead at $90.2m driven by an increasing number of $1m+ contract customers. Full year adjusted profit before tax is expected to be not less than $3.6m compared to $1.7m, reflecting a better customer mix but yet still held back by increasing cost in critical components. This year new gaming software Launchpad was launched and is designed to make it simpler and faster for customers to develop and run land-based casino games, such as slot machines, in regulated markets worldwide. It is powered by Quixant’s established Software Suite, which has been used in the field for more than 20 years. The industrial Displays brand, Densitron, revenues reduced to $30.1m compared to $31.9m due to the longer implementation cycles than anticipated. Net cash at FY December 2025 was $25.1m (FY24: $29.1m), reflecting the continued generation of positive operating cash flow, offset by increased investment in product development. Furthermore, the Group returned $3.6m of cash to shareholders in the first half of 2025 through dividends and its share buy-back programme, including 785,107 acquired at 77p on 26 February.
Hybridan Comment: The pace of growth may be enhanced by product launches.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly October 2025, NXQ share price then 86.5p
By Jon Levinson
** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on 2 March 2026
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