Hybridan Monthly, 5 May 2026
Market Comment: View from the Broker’s Desk: Making the Quantum Leap in Small Cap Investing
Following on from our April 2026 monthly report where we covered Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) – the technological wave of resistance that is getting the world ready for when Quantum Computers are live, we continue the theme of Quantum Computing in SMEs. If the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has set a deadline of 2030 to show compliance with new PQC standards for those vendors selling into the US Government, then the advent of Quantum Computing could be sooner than expected.
Previous technology transitions, whether its desktop computers to laptops to mobile phones to now potentially smart glasses, pales into insignificance when we look at the new realities quantum computing will bring. The age of traditional machines processing binary bits of information in isolation will soon be replaced with quantum systems capable of processing vast numbers of possibilities in parallel all at the same time.
This is going to fundamentally change our understanding on how we interpret complex data across a multitude of disciplines including pharmaceuticals, finance, defence and traditional cryptography, to name but a few. Whilst completely different to previous scientific and technological breakthroughs, quantum computing will experience the same minefield that all early-stage investors have had to contend with and that is backing the right company, at the right time, and getting something proven in a laboratory setting is just the start to having it proven successful in a commercial reality.
The “Golden Snitch” in quantum computing rests at its core which is the qubit (quantum bit) – the configuration of the hardware at a quantum level. Qubits are incredibly fragile and often lose their quantum properties when they start interacting with their environment through heat and vibration. Their fragility often leads to an extremely narrow window to perform computations and can often lead to high error rates. The current leading qubit technologies (superconducting circuits and trapped ions) have extreme environmental demands that require near-absolute-zero temperatures, making systems expensive and hard to scale.
The quantum race is accelerating as time goes on with global investment continuing to flow into the sector. The US SPAC craze is well and truly back in fashion raising over $7bn this year; including IQM Quantum ($1.8bn) and Terra Quantum ($3.25bn). Perhaps more tangible, Quantinuum is formally advancing plans for a potential US IPO, suggesting a valuation above $20bn and a possible $1bn raise. Closer to home in the UK, we have experienced rising amounts of attention and momentum in companies operating under the broader “Quantum Umbrella.”
Delta Gold Technologies (AQSE: DGQ)
Delta IPO’d back in December 2025, raising £2.5m at 10p and is currently trading above 120p so has experienced a phenomenal run in its short life as a listed company. The Company is founded on the belief that nano-scale gold has properties that are orders of magnitude better in physical characteristics to host stable qubits for Quantum Computing compared to alternatives under investigation. The Company is focused on de-risked innovation; major players are spending $3bn-$5bn annually without stable qubits and are still in a research phase. Delta is building a portfolio approach through developing IP with world renowned universities leading the charge in quantum computing research ensuring the company is at the forefront of R&D.
IonQ’s $1bn acquisition of British quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics shows investors what success “can” look like at a very early stage. In such a fast-moving sector, building a tangible USP in solid-state gold clusters could be viewed as a strategic threat by major firms and could provide Delta shareholders with a potentially equally lucrative exit.
Quantum Base Holdings (QUBE.L)
The Lancaster University spin-out had a busy 12 months following its April 2025 AIM Admission, when it raised £4.8m to commercialise Q-ID — a quantum-secure, atomically-unique fingerprint that cannot be cloned, copied or reverse-engineered, with applications across product authentication, anti-counterfeit and brand protection. QUBE is gaining traction as a pure-play quantum-security listed company: the underlying physics (random atomic-scale variation in 2D materials) is genuinely quantum-mechanical, and the unit-economics story — a smartphone-readable label embedded into existing print/packaging workflows — is a known application for an interface.
The recent trading update highlights strong commercial traction with total revenues for the financial year ending 30 April 2026 (FY26) to be in the range of £455,000 to £595,000, representing a significant increase on the financial year ended 30 April 2025 (FY25). Quantum Base has progressed its discussions to an advanced stage with four potential customers across the security printing, pharmaceuticals and brand protection sectors, reflecting the broad applicability of Q-ID technology and the growing market recognition of Q-ID as a credible, scalable solution.
Quantum Outlook
For small cap investors, the sector presents a classic early-stage technology profile: high potential returns coupled with significant execution and timing risks. Unlike established technology sectors, quantum computing remains largely pre-revenue or early-revenue, meaning traditional valuation metrics are often inapplicable. Unlike traditional tech bubbles, the regulatory uncertainty surrounding quantum-safe security could create a rush for consolidation in the sector.
It seems most plausible that small cap exposure to this sector will be SMEs who are driving the integration and applications that will sit between the raw quantum hardware and the end users. These small companies excel at innovation within specialist algorithms and software; leaving the larger companies to dominate the capex heavy strategy of building a quantum computer. Realistically, it will only ever be the likes of IBM, Google, Microsoft and Amazon that will have the balance sheets to fund such programmes.
We expect large companies to continue to acquire or partner with innovative small companies rather than competing head-to-head. The Oxford Ionics acquisition is a perfect example—IonQ bought breakthrough IP rather than developing it internally, and this route presents the most realistic exit route for small cap companies operating in the quantum space.
By Niall Pearson
Company Reports: Growth opportunities
AREC Clinical Advance
TST Star Touch
Arecor Therapeutics 66.00p £24.92m (AREC.L)
|
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
|
62p-70p |
Year End 31 December |
BGF Investment Management 13.25% |
Big markets |
|
Spread 12.90% |
Finals reported 13 April 2026 |
Lombard Odier Asset Management 8.12% |
Business progress |
|
52 week High/Low 93.5p/38p |
Interim results to 30 June, reported 25 September |
Unilever 7.76% |
Partner negotiations |
Source: Alpha Terminal
Arecor is a clinical-stage biotech Company that is developing innovative and ‘superior’ therapeutics focused on reducing the treatment burden and improving outcomes for people living with diabetes, obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases. The focus is on two core product areas of diabetes and the oral delivery of peptides; both of which are high growth multi-billion-dollar markets where the Company is developing a competitive edge.
The Finals for FY to 31 December 2025 were reported on 13 April. Total revenue, including discontinued operations, was £3.1m compared to £5.1m in the year to 31 December 2024. The decrease in revenues is due to the cessation of operations at Tetris Pharma; however this cessation of activities also has the positive effect of reducing the burn rate. PBT was £0.99m compared to a £5.10m loss in the prior period, with net cash of £6.1m against £3.2m at 31 December 2024.
An $11m royalty transaction deal was closed on 25 September 2025 to fund Phase 2 trial-enabling activities with as stated with that announcement and at that point an estimated cash runway into H1 2027. The operational highlights of the Finals for FY December 2025 reported advances in its core products and a pathway of ‘achievable’ milestones which are likely to attract increased commercial attention.
The obesity-diabetes drugs market, according to Morgan Stanley*, is projected to grow from $15bn in 2024 to $177bn by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.6%. The 25 September $11m royalty deal was for $7m up front, and $4m in milestone payments, of which $0.5m has already been received and a further $0.5m payment of milestone payments is expected during 2026. The non-dilutive funds provide headroom to proceed with Phase 2 activities to prove the concept by evaluating a drug’s efficacy, optimal dosage, and short-term side-effects. Studies will continue with the initial low-cost pharmacokinetic/dynamic (PKD) for the oral delivery of the peptides platform. These activities create the prospect of a sequence of value adding news flow events.
The lead product AT278 is a category disrupting ultra-concentrated, ultra-rapid-acting (500U/mL) insulin, designed to transform Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) systems. AT278 has advanced across product development to initial commercial partnering.
A Co-development deal was signed on 25 September with Sequel Med Tech (Sequel) to combine Arecor’s ultra-concentrated, ultra-rapid-acting (500U/mL) insulin, AT278, with Sequel’s twiist™ Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) system. Sequel, founded in 1970, is a US insulin pump device company. Arecor and Sequel will enter a broader, co-development and commercialisation partnership, and the Company has said that details are to follow. The Board’s focus is to secure the best possible deal to take AT278 into Phase 2 in 2H 2026, which involves recruiting 100-300 obesity patients.
The Company’s studies are generating insights and data to inform the next development steps for the oral peptide delivery platform, which has a low-cost burden, but large commercial upside. A provisional patent covering these tri-functional linkers has been filed and synthesis of the first prototype completed. The Company expects to complete the three new classes of reagents in 2026, with commercial launch either directly or through licensing to follow rapidly.
Hybridan Comment: The indifferent reaction to the financial results for the FY 2025 ignores the operational progress reported and the significance of the potential news flow.
*https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/weight-loss-medication-market-unstoppable-growth
Touchstar 64.0p £5.1m (TST.L)
|
Price |
Results |
Top 3 Shareholders |
Value |
|
62p-66p |
Year End 31 December |
Mr. Thomas W G Charlton 13.33% |
Decades of knowledge |
|
Spread 6% |
Reported 29 April 2025 |
Mr. Ian P Martin (Exec Chairman) 10.48% |
New CEO |
|
52 week High/Low 91.5p/57.5p |
Interims to 30 June, reported 16 September 2025 |
Robert & Virginia Millington 7.07% |
Restructured for growth |
Source: Alpha Terminal
Touchstar is an established supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services used for a variety of purposes and industrial sectors and has generally broken-even, but with little growth. Lynden Jones was appointed as CEO on 24 June 2025 after 14 years as a director and is starting to transform the Company.
There is a legacy of decades of supplying systems, networks, and IT consultancy services with a base of over 500,000 installations. These are in oil & gas and warehouse logistics digitalisation, complete real-time proof of delivery systems, rugged mobile computer systems (for harsh environments), and access control. Last year, Touchstar installed its Android mobile computing devices for a family business founded in 1964, Bilsland Ltd, which is in heating oil and fuel delivery, across all of its depots as part of a fleet roll out. Other clients include Calor Gas, British Sugar, Certas Energy, Gulf Oil International, Lakeland, Tata Steel and Q8.
The Trading update for FY December 2025 made on 16 December reported reduced revenue expectations to around £6.7m compared to £6.9m in the prior period and a small pre-tax trading profit for the year.
The Company completed a share buyback programme on 29 October 2025 after last paying 72.5p per share. The net cash at the Interims to June 2025 was £2m, and after the share buy backs, the Company said: “Despite lower profitability, the Company’s balance sheet remains healthy and year end cash should remain at over £2m.”
For 2026, the Company anticipates some acceleration of organic revenue growth while seeking acquisition opportunities.
The focus has been on strengthening the foundations of the business to enhance its growth prospects. To that end, a comprehensive restructuring is underway aimed at driving efficiency, collaboration and consistency into the business. The FY December 2025 is due to be announced before 30 June 2026.There will be two non-trading exceptional charges on the profit and loss account, one relating to the c. £0.2m costs of the reorganisation and the other relating to the treatment of software development costs with an impairment charge of £1.25m. The operational restructuring made by the ‘new generation’ management team should be complete.
The target is to invest ‘wisely’ in organic growth and management bandwidth allowing, the integration of future acquisitions. Since the 16 December trading update, Directors have been persistent buyers of shares, the last announced on 24 March with the CEO Lynden paying 65p and taking his shareholding to 4.9%.
Hybridan Comment: We estimate EBITDA/EV of 4.25x for December 2025, which seems modest for a critical solutions provider under new management.
House Report: House News
Panther Metals 102.50p £8.05m (PALM.L)*
The finals to 31 December 2025 were reported on 20 April and emphasised the results ordinated approach of Panther, the Canadian focused mineral exploration Company. The approach is the rapid assessment of projects with drilling by using advanced technologies and extensive geological data to determine commercial viability.
The Winston Lake Mine tailings Project, Batch Four Vibracoring results were reported on 28 April and showed good grade mineralisation consistency that exceed previous assays. There is a significant near-term production opportunity at Winston which is supported by the existing physical infrastructure, including power lines. It was good to see the share price reflect the positive recent newsflow, crossing the £1 barrier again on Friday 1 May, having last been there last September.
The Dotted Lake and Obonga projects have advanced beyond generative exploration to delineate multiple drill ready discovery and resource targets. These offer exciting base metal and critical mineral potential with the capacity for project scalability. Post year-end, Panther commissioned metallurgical testwork at Dotted Lake to evaluate opportunities to recover magnesium from serpentine. Panther is interested in alternative extraction technologies capable of improving upon conventional leaching recoveries, which would be particularly value enhancing news.
The Financials for FY 31 December 2025 reported Net Assets up 6% to £2.2m, with cash of £71.1k compared to £17.6k in the prior period. The administrative expenses increased to £0.748m compared to £0.662m in the FY 2024, with a lower Operating loss at £1.3m against £1.9m in the prior year. The total executive director salaries for FY2025 were £162k (across three directors) compared to £141k (across two directors).
During 2025, £1.2m was raised and in February 2026, a further £1.2m was raised at 70p to drive the exploration and corporate objectives.
Donna Humphreys joined the Board as a NED and amongst other relevant experience, Donna has comprehensive compliance expertise within the Canadian regulated environments. This aligns with the filing of a prospectus with the Ontario Securities Commission as the Company advances its application for a dual listing on the CSE. The intention is to expand the investor base.
Hybridan Comment: The Panther approach generates intense activity and each of the three projects have the potential to add significant value.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly December, PALM share price then 49p
* A corporate client of Hybridan LLP
Updates/Events: News on the following companies
ILIKA 33.50p £59.67m (IKA.L)
The UK pioneer in solid state battery technology reported a £214k 12-month joint development programme on 10 April. The Battery Innovation Programme is to integrate its 10Ah Goliath prototypes into Brompton’s battery packs for its next generation of foldable e-bikes. The programme will commence on 1 July and will see production of the battery packs and on-bike trials, subject to technical milestone delivery, by mid-2027. Brompton is the largest bicycle and e-bike manufacturer in the UK. The 10Ah Goliath cells are designed to offer increased energy density and enhanced cell safety features, potentially allowing Brompton to reduce the weight of its battery pack. IKA has established the benefits of solid-state batteries over some years, and the commercialisation journey is accelerating in a market estimated to be worth $1.6bn in 2025, growing to $10bn by 2035, according to Fortune Business Insights*.
Another client (and market) is Cirtec Medical, a global medical device manufacturer and innovator. On 10 March, Ilika announced a commercial electrode supply arrangement to support product manufacturing. Ilika has now fulfilled the initial order of its Stereax M300 used in medical devices which has generated commercial revenue.
Hybridan Comment: Commercial traction is being made and the market potential is extremely attractive.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly April 2026, share price then 26p
Oxford Metrics 48.00p £53.96m (OMG.L)
The smart sensing and software Company servicing life sciences, entertainment, engineering and manufacturing markets updated on H1 trading to 31 March 2026 0n 23 April. Revenue of £20.7m is expected compared to £20.1m in the prior period, with a modestly improved adjusted loss before interest and tax. Vicon, the Motion Capture division’s trading brand, delivered revenue growth.
US academic and entertainment markets remained broadly unchanged, but there is encouraging demand across core industries in other territories and emerging geographies There have been several significant contract wins, in Eastern Europe, Japan and India.
Cash conversion remains strong, with a net cash position of £31.7m after the payment of the dividend and also paying for share buybacks, which are continuing. The cash provides flexibility for organic and inorganic growth initiatives focused on building a more predictable and profitable platform.
H1 March results are on 17 June and the management team will present an update on strategy, including its approach to capital allocation and its three-year framework.
The EBITDA forecast on Alpha Terminal for FY September 2026 is £7.0m on revenue of £49.1m which, we calculate, gives an EBITDA/ EV ratio of 3.35x.
Hybridan Comment: The deep cash cushion opens a wide range of strategic options, and the shares remain ‘over’ cautiously valued.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly November 2025, OMG share price then 43.65p
Shield Therapeutics 7.90p £84.40m (STX.L)
The commercial-stage pharmaceutical Company focused on iron deficiency reported its scheduled Q1 Trading update on 1 May, which coincided with the resignation of the CFO. Q1 Revenues were $18m, then EBIT was c.$2.5m and the lead products ACCRUFeR revenues were up 54% to $9.9m. The trading concern was the ‘subsidised’ funding across federal state level programs which was reduced, particularly at the Medicaid program in New York representing around $1.9m or 19% of Q1 ACCRUFeR sales.
Clinically low iron levels can cause serious health problems for children and adults of all ages, across multiple therapeutic areas. In the US alone it affects about 20 million people which represents a $2.5bn market opportunity by 2030 according to Grand View Research.*
It is too early to determine the impact of the Medicaid changes on growth prospects, but it may be mitigated by the international roll-out programme.
Geographical progress is being made; in Canada; a new licensing agreement in Japan; and the successful completion of a key Phase 3 study in China. Shield Therapeutics’ Japanese partner confirmed its first patient enrolment for the Phase II clinical trial for ACCRUFeR, a new drug candidate for Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.
Cash was $12.4m as of 31 March 2026 compared to $11.6m on 31 December 2025.
Hybridan Comment: The trading update suggests caution, but the greater risk could be missing the upside.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly February 2026, STX share price then 10.90p
*https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/iron-deficiency-anemia-therapy-market-report
Companies that may be in the news in May:
Hardide 37.5p £27.98m (HDD.L)
The provider of advanced surface treatment technology announced on 28 April that it has received a further £1.8m of new orders from its large North American energy sector customer. This is additional to the Group’s existing forecasts and therefore revenues and financial performance for FY September 2026 will be materially ahead of its previous expectations. Orders are now being fulfilled from the Group’s Bicester facility in the UK and there are production facilities in the US. Growth is being driven by the aerospace business, including initial revenues from the contract to coat cargo door components for freight aircraft.
There are, however, increases in input costs, particularly the cost of tungsten gas and aggregate additional input costs are expected to amount to around £0.7m in H2 FY 2026. The Company expects increased costs to be mitigated by passing on the price to its clients and increasing operational efficiency. Hardide seems to be trading strongly, and the positive momentum is continuing. The forecast on Alpha Terminal for September 2026 is for turnover of £10.3m, a PBT of £2.3m and an EPS of 3p, which gives a prospective P/E of 12x. Interim results for the 6 months ending March 2026 are expected on 21 May.
Hybridan Comment: The shares have risen by around 455% from our original Hybridan Monthly comment in February 2025, when the share price was then 6.75p. The input cost increases are a concern, although manageable according to the Company, and the shares still seem fair value.
Last Comment in Hybridan Monthly in January 2026, Hardide share price then 16.75p
By Jon Levinson
** Share prices, market capitalisations, and top 3 Shareholders all reported as at the close on Friday 1 May 2026
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